How to Size Your Bets Using Confidence Points

Bet sizing is one of the most overlooked elements of profitable sports betting. At WAGERBIRD, we’ve replaced vague “units” with a system that brings structure, transparency, and mathematical discipline: Confidence Points.

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What Are Confidence Points?

Confidence Points are WAGERBIRD’s proprietary scoring system, ranging from 10 to 100, that reflects a model-weighted confidence level for every pick inside the Terminal. These values are not opinions—they are system-derived, based on real-time pricing, win probability, market shape, and algorithmic alignment.

Why Not Use “Units”?

Unlike traditional handicappers who recommend 1–3 units per play (without defining what a “unit” is), WAGERBIRD clients follow a clearer, more objective rule. Each point equals a percentage of your max bet, helping you stay proportional and consistent.

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Translating Confidence Points to Wager Size

Formula:

Max Bet ÷ 100 = Dollar Amount per Point

From there, multiply by the Confidence Point value.

Example 1:
If your max single bet is $100, then it’s $1 per point:

• 92-point pick = $92
• 74-point pick = $74

Example 2:
If your max is $500, then it’s $5 per point:

• 63-point pick = $315 (63 × $5)
• 85-point pick = $425 (85 × $5)

Prefer smaller stakes? Just scale down the math:

• $0.50/pt → $50 max bet
• $0.25/pt → $25 max bet
  The key is maintaining proportionality, not matching dollar amounts.

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Confidence Points in the Terminal vs HOTSHEET

• In the full Terminal, picks range from 10 to 100 points.
• On the HOTSHEET, only 76 to 100 point picks are shown—these are the strongest-rated plays of the day.
• Want to build out high-edge parlays? Our Parlay Punch tool uses only 80+ Confidence Point plays to maximize alignment.

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Why This System Works

• Discipline: Avoids flat-betting or overexposure on low-confidence edges.
• Scalable: Works for $25 bettors and $2,500 bettors alike.
• Transparent: All picks come pre-scored—no guesswork.
• Mathematically Sound: Confidence Points reflect model confidence and real odds, not gut feel.

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Final Takeaway

Whether you're betting $1 per point or $10 per point, the Confidence Point system keeps your risk proportional to the strength of each edge. This creates structured, disciplined betting that reduces variance and increases long-term profitability.