PRIMARY
Market Signal
Model probability compared to the market price, plus live line movement and sharp action. The primary quantitative edge input.
WAGERBIRD TERMINAL · LIVE SIGNAL FEED · CONFIDENCE MODEL v4.3
// THE TERMINAL
CONFIDENCE-SCORED
BETTING SIGNALS.
TREATED AS AN ASSET CLASS.
The WagerBird Terminal is research infrastructure for sports markets. Every signal is rated 25 to 100 on a proprietary confidence model. Every position is priced. Every outcome is logged. Not a picks service. A trading desk.
// THE CONFIDENCE MODEL
EVERY SIGNAL IS
PRICED ON A 25 TO 100 SCALE.
The confidence score is the core of the Terminal. It translates market probability, bookmaker psychology, and situational data into a single number that tells a trader how much to care and how large to size. An 85 is not a 95. A 95 is not a 97.
CONFIDENCE SCALEWAGERBIRD MODEL v4.3
0 to 25NO-BET
Below model threshold. Not published.
Terminal will not surface the play.
25 to 50OPENER
Lowest band of surfaced signals. Measured entry.
Tail exposure. Small allocation on positive expectancy.
50 to 76STANDARD
Positive model expectation. Measured size.
Core-adjacent allocation. Positive expectancy.
76 to 95ELITE
Strong model conviction. The daily backbone of the feed.
Standard position. Bet with confidence.
96 to 100GEM
Highest-conviction signal. The rarest tier the model publishes.
Size up. Treat as a core position.
// MODEL INPUTS
WHAT GOES INTO A SCORE
The model weights four families of inputs against one another. The score is not a prediction. It is the size of the edge expressed as a number.
PRIMARY
Bookmaker Psychology
The model reads sportsbooks the way traders read market makers. Every line reflects liability management, sharp money flow, and public action. Not just probability. The assumption that books want equal money on each side is wrong most nights. Some lines signal conviction. Others are pure inducement. The Terminal factors the book's posture into every signal.
SECONDARY
Situational Context
Historical situational signal strength, injuries, weather, and lineup deltas. The context layer that differentiates superficially similar markets.
SECONDARY
Market Structure
Liquidity across major books and volatility of the specific market type. Adjusts conviction relative to how tradable the line is.
ECONOMICS
Unlock cost equals the confidence score in Points. A 91-scored signal costs 91 Points. A 97-scored GEM costs 97 Points. The cost structure puts every unlock on the same relative risk curve.
WHAT A GEM IS
A GEM is a 96 or higher confidence signal. GEMs represent the highest-conviction plays on the board. Like every signal, unlock cost equals the confidence score in Points.
// THE TERMINAL IN ACTION
THE ACTUAL PRODUCT.
NOT A PICKS EMAIL.
The Terminal lives at app.wagerbird.com. It is the research and execution surface for every Trader subscription. Feed, position detail, ledger. One tool.
Every scored signal, ranked by edge size.
The Terminal renders the full live feed with confidence, price history, and market depth. Filter by sport, market type, confidence band, or book.
Thesis, price history, and risk, in one view.
Each signal opens into a position detail card. The model's reasoning, book-by-book comparison, historical behavior of the specific market, and updated confidence as the line moves.
Every unlock is logged and scored.
The ledger tracks every position you have opened through the Terminal. Wins, losses, net Points, confidence-weighted performance. The model grades your month, not the other way around.
// TRACK RECORD
RECENT WINS.
PULLED LIVE FROM THE TERMINAL.
Every closed position is logged. These are the most recent winning closes reported by the Terminal’s results feed. Losses are logged to the same feed and filtered out of this view.
Recent wins reported--
Net points captured--
Sports in windowLive
Source/api/ticker-wins
Loading live results...
// TRADER PLANS
THREE TIERS.
ONE BUILT FOR THE MAJORITY.
Every Trader plan includes full Terminal access, the full confidence feed, and GEM availability. Tiers differ on Points volume, GEM volume, and per-point economics. Trader II is the default for most operators.
// TRADER I
TRADER I
Light allocation. Monthly cadence.
$79/ mo
$948 annualized · cancel any time
POINTS1,500per month
GEMS196+ signals
PER POINT$0.05effective cost
- 1,500 Points per month
- 1 GEM per month
- Full Terminal access
- Confidence-scored signal feed
- Cancel any time
Selective positions. Evaluating the product.
GET TRADER I →RECOMMENDED
// TRADER II
TRADER II
Built for the most common Terminal use case.
$159/ mo
$1,908 annualized · cancel any time
POINTS2,500per month
GEMS496+ signals
PER POINT$0.06effective cost
- 2,500 Points per month
- 4 GEMs per month
- Full Terminal access
- Priority signal alerts
- Rollover points inside cycle
- Cancel any time
Active allocators. Daily decision flow.
GET TRADER II →// TRADER III
TRADER III
Designed for operators running full position sizing.
$279/ mo
$3,348 annualized · cancel any time
POINTS5,000per month
GEMS1296+ signals
PER POINT$0.06effective cost
- 5,000 Points per month
- 12 GEMs per month
- Full Terminal access
- Priority signal alerts
- Rollover points inside cycle
- Cancel any time
High-volume operators. Portfolio-scale stakes.
GET TRADER III →Points auto-load every billing cycle. Unused Points within the cycle roll forward. GEMs are counted per cycle and do not roll forward.
// PRODUCT DIVERGENCE
THE TERMINAL IS NOT
THE HOTSHEET.
Two different products for two different operators. If you want three picks for tonight delivered in sixty seconds with no account required, use Hotsheet. If you want ongoing research infrastructure, stay on this page.
// HOTSHEET
TONIGHT’S PICKS. DELIVERED NOW.
- One-time purchase. No account required.
- Three picks. Delivered inside a minute.
- Short-term entertainment buyer.
- No Terminal access. No ongoing tooling.
// TERMINAL
ONGOING RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE.
- Monthly subscription. Cancel any time.
- Full confidence feed. Full position detail.
- GEMs bundled in the monthly allocation.
- Portfolio-mindset operator.
// WHO USES THIS
WAGERBIRD TRADER IS FOR
SERIOUS OPERATORS.
Three archetypes describe nearly every Terminal subscriber. If one of these sounds like you, the Terminal is built for your workflow. If none do, Hotsheet is the better starting point.
THE SIDE-INCOME OPERATOR
Runs sports betting as a second P&L. Logs every position. Evaluates performance monthly.
HOW THEY USE ITTrader II. Treats the GEM allocation as core positions. Uses Points to test lower-conviction markets.
THE PORTFOLIO THINKER
Treats sports markets as one sleeve of a broader risk book. Cares about expectancy, not results.
HOW THEY USE ITTrader II or III. Uses confidence bands to size positions. Reviews the ledger like a monthly statement.
THE CAPITAL ALLOCATOR
Runs significant unit size. Needs liquidity data and book-by-book pricing on every move.
HOW THEY USE ITTrader III. Maximum GEM volume. Priority alerts. Treats the Terminal as an execution surface.
// POINTS PACKS
NO COMMITMENT.
POINTS NEVER EXPIRE.
Not ready to subscribe? Points Packs unlock the same Terminal signals without a monthly commitment. Buy Points, unlock signals at their confidence-scored cost, stay for as long as you want.
STARTER PACK
7 to 9 premium signals
600 PointsVolume
$39$0.07 / point
BUY STARTER PACK →CORE PACK
20 to 26 premium signals
1,700 PointsVolume
$99$0.06 / point
BUY CORE PACK →ADVANCED PACK
42 to 55 premium signals
3,600 PointsVolume
$199$0.06 / point
BUY ADVANCED PACK →Points unlock any signal, including GEMs, at their confidence-scored cost. One GEM unlock costs the confidence score in Points.
// FAQ
OBJECTIONS,
ANSWERED FAIRLY.
The confidence model runs every day. The first few weeks are the window where sample size becomes meaningful. Positions close on game timelines, so expect to evaluate performance on a monthly basis, not a single session.
Every Trader plan cancels inside the Terminal. No retention flow, no phone call. When you cancel, Points and GEMs stop auto-loading at the next cycle. Anything already unlocked remains visible.
No. The Terminal is designed so a disciplined new operator can run the same workflow as a veteran. The confidence score does the heavy lifting: a 91 is a 91 whether you have been betting for one month or ten years.
Picks services sell a subjective human opinion on a game. The Terminal publishes a numerical confidence score generated by a model, priced in Points, and logged against outcomes. Closer in shape to a trading desk research platform than an email list.
Hotsheet is a one-time $25 purchase for three picks, delivered the moment you pay. It is a short-term product for a different buyer. Terminal is ongoing research infrastructure with monthly Points and GEMs bundled in.
Points Packs unlock any signal on the board, including GEMs, at the confidence-scored cost. A Trader subscription bundles a monthly Points allocation plus GEMs at a better effective per-point rate than packs. Packs are the no-commitment option; Trader plans are the operator option.
NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and major soccer markets. Coverage is weighted by sport availability and model confidence. The Terminal only publishes signals the model is willing to stand behind.
Within a billing cycle, Points roll forward. Subscription Points are not banked indefinitely across tier changes or cancellation cycles. Points Pack Points never expire.
// OPEN THE TERMINAL
GET ACCESS.
GET THE MODEL.
Trader II is the default. Start there, scale up if the workflow demands it, downgrade if it does not. Cancel inside the Terminal any time.
WagerBird is an analytics and education product. We do not accept wagers. The Terminal delivers information and confidence-scored signals only. Bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Must be 21+ where sports betting is legal.